Monte Carlo pass-probability engine

Will you actually pass?

Enter your edge and we simulate it thousands of times against every firm's real drawdown, daily-loss and target rules — then rank them by your true odds of passing.

🔒 100% in your browser — your trades never leave this page
Your trading
Win rate
Expectancy
Trades
10,000 simulated runs per firm
Your odds by firm
Enter your stats and hit Run simulation
to see your real pass probability for each firm.
How your odds are calculated

01 · Your distribution

Your trades — typed, pasted, or from your uploaded journal — become a set of R-multiples (each result in units of your risk).

02 · 10,000 runs / firm

We bootstrap-resample your trades into thousands of possible account histories, simulated day by day.

03 · Real firm rules

Every run is tested against that firm's exact profit target, daily-loss limit and drawdown type — static, EOD- or intraday-trailing.

04 · Your pass rate

Your odds = the share of runs that hit the target before breaching a limit. Identical math for every firm — never weighted by payout.

Assumptions & honesty: trades are resampled independently from your own distribution, at a fixed trades-per-day and fixed-fractional risk. The model shows how each firm's rules interact with your edge — it doesn't predict markets, model strategy-specific hot/cold streaks, or guarantee any result. Treat the output as well-grounded probabilities, not promises. Try the trader profiles in the panel (Scalper → Runner) to watch how different R:R styles fare across firms. Firm rules are approximate and change often — always verify on the firm's site before buying.